The once widespread belief that failed states generate non-traditional threats for outsiders is being reconsidered due to new evidence that weak, but stable states provide more hospitable environments. In this talk, the speaker will examine the two competing claims using new data on global patterns of maritime piracy. Reaffirming the old conventional wisdom, the speaker finds that there is a strong positive relationship between increased state fragility and the production of maritime piracy. However, the dynamics of piracy within Somalia belie the macro-level patterns. By looking closer at patterns of governance on the ground, the speaker finds that local governmental support approximating the conditions within weak states does enable the organized and sophisticated form of piracy that we find in Puntland. These findings provide a more nuanced perspective on the relationship between state fragility and external threat and offer guidance regarding the land-based strategies most likely to reduce piracy.

PS 595 Credit