Olivia Quinn and Amanda Brush, political science graduate students, and Professor Eric R.A.N. Smith recently published an election forecast at The Washington Post's Monkey Cage. They build a parsimonious, historically accurate model for predicting the upcoming House, Senate, and Presidential elections.

A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
By Olivia Quinn, Amanda Brush and Eric R. A. N. Smith
July 7

The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, forecast predicting a Democratic win in November. Here’s how we approached these forecasts.

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